Dec. 20 , 2021 — The Omicron coronavirus variant has been present in dozens of states throughout the nation because it was first recognized in South Africa in November, and plenty of could also be questioning: Will it upstage Delta and trigger a winter surge? Is it nonetheless secure to collect with others for the vacations? How is that this variant affecting kids?
Consultants addressed these and different questions in a webinar hosted by New York College final week, acknowledging that it’s going to take a while to seek out out all of the essential information about Omicron.
However within the meantime, this is what’s identified — and never — about Omicron within the fast-changing COVID panorama.
How widespread is Omicron now?
As of Dec. 15, Omicron transmission had been reported in 80 nations, in response to Michael H. Merson, MD, a visiting professor of worldwide well being on the New York College College of World Public Well being. Within the 35 states with Omicron circumstances, the numbers fluctuate. Proper now, New York and New Jersey are detecting the Omicron variant at about 4 instances the general charge within the nation, he mentioned. However whether or not or not the variant will stay in ”pockets” is presently unknown, he mentioned.
How can individuals benefit from the holidays safely?
With regards to deciding about gatherings and journey, “belief your instincts,” Elodie Ghedin, PhD, chief of the methods genomics part on the Nationwide Institute of Allergy and Infectious Ailments and affiliate school member at NYU, mentioned.
“Prior to now 2 years, you may have developed a really feel for what feels too shut. This isn’t April 2020. You could have discovered so much within the final 2 years.”
For instance of secure vacation gatherings, the consultants cited President Joe Biden’s look final Tuesday at a celebration of 400, which was held on a resort rooftop on account of COVID issues.
“It is crucial to spend the vacations with household and pals,” Merson mentioned. “However accomplish that correctly. That is my recommendation about journey.”
Meaning getting vaccinated and boosted when eligible, making use of speedy testing when known as for, masking, handwashing, avoiding crowded indoor areas, and maintaining your distance from others.
Understanding your danger degree and that of household and pals when planning for the vacations can be vital, Merson mentioned.
Is Omicron enormously affecting kids?
Consultants are ready on information to seek out out.
“The jury continues to be out on how virulent Omicron can be for teenagers,” mentioned Celine R. Gounder, MD, a member of President Biden’s COVID-19 process pressure and a medical assistant professor of drugs and infectious ailments at NYU Grossman College of Medication. “We do not know.”
The most effective factor mother and father can do proper now’s to vaccinate their kids ages 5 years and up who’re eligible, she mentioned.
Do monoclonal antibody medication work properly towards Omicron?
No, Ghedin mentioned.
“Many of the monoclonal antibodies don’t appear to work very properly towards Omicron,” she mentioned.
What’s identified about how infectious Omicron is?
“It seems to be essentially the most infectious variant up to now,” mentioned Gounder.
“Relative to Delta, Omicron seems to be 2-3 instances extra infectious.”
Put one other approach, she mentioned, you’re prone to infect 2 to three instances extra individuals than if contaminated with different variants.
Folks mustn’t rely on their pure immunity from a previous COVID an infection to guard them from the Omicron variant, Gounder mentioned.
It additionally does appear that the Omicron variant is perhaps much less virulent than different variants, she mentioned. (Virulence refers to how extreme a illness an contaminated particular person can get.)
If Omicron is much less virulent, is not that excellent news?
Sure and no, Gounder mentioned.
“Even when it is a delicate illness, you may nonetheless have plenty of deaths. To illustrate COVID has a case fatality charge of 1% and you’ve got 100 individuals who get contaminated — and one demise,” she mentioned.
Then say Omicron’s charge is .25%, however when you have 400 circumstances, since it’s extra infectious, that is nonetheless one demise.
“We actually need to be very cautious once we say much less lethal and fewer extreme [when talking about Omicron]. On a inhabitants degree, Omicron may very well be simply as lethal as Delta even when it causes delicate illness, if extra are contaminated,” she mentioned.
If a COVID take a look at is constructive, will the outcomes specify whether or not it’s the Delta or the Omicron variant?
“Sadly, you won’t be able to get that data from a PCR take a look at finished locally,” Ghedin mentioned. “In case you are doing it by way of a analysis entity, they could present that data, however I extremely doubt it.”
With extra individuals vaccinated now than prior to now, can we contemplate COVID endemic, not a pandemic, now?
No, Gounder mentioned.
“We’re nowhere close to endemic [status],” she mentioned. “We’re nonetheless very a lot pandemic. Saying it’s endemic now’s like saying, ‘Let’s do nothing.'”
Presently the U.S. is at a degree of about 60% of the inhabitants vaccinated, she mentioned.
“We actually have to be attending to 85, 90 p.c” earlier than transitioning into endemic standing.
In tropical international locations, the flu is endemic, Ghedin mentioned, ”and it is there year-round. We’re not there with SARS-CoV-2.”